All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong

At this critical time in the modern history of the human race, mathematical models have been pushed into the foreground. Epidemic forecasting informs policy and even individual decision-making. Sadly, scientists and journalists have completely failed to communicate how these models work. Last week the Financial Times published the headline 'Coronavirus may have infected half of…

At this critical time in the modern history of the human race, mathematical models have been pushed into the foreground. Epidemic forecasting informs policy and even individual decision-making. Sadly, scientists and journalists have completely failed to communicate how these models work. Last week the Financial Times published the headline 'Coronavirus may have infected half of…